Germany vs Netherlands match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Germany the pick at 50% for Germany vs Netherlands. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Netherlands travel to Germany on 16 November 2026. Germany are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Germany - Netherlands. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Germany: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 9 conceded in seven matches, 3.14 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Netherlands: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 8 conceded in seven matches, 2.14 and 1.14 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Germany | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDD | WDWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 3 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 3.14 / 1.29 | 2.14 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.57 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.9 | 52.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Germany 41.9 versus Netherlands 52.2, a gap of 10.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.60, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Germany's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Germany at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Germany or Netherlands?
Germany, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Germany, 20% the draw and 30% Netherlands.
When and where is Germany vs Netherlands being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Germany and Netherlands met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Germany and Netherlands?
Germany have taken 6 points from their last five (DWLDD), Netherlands 9 from theirs (WDWDD). Most recently Germany took a 0-0 draw away at Greece and Netherlands a 2-1 win at home to Serbia.
How many goals are expected in Germany vs Netherlands?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.60 — 3.20 for Germany and 2.40 for Netherlands. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.