Greece vs Serbia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Greece the pick at 45% for Greece vs Serbia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Greece face Serbia on 16 November 2026. Greece are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Greece - Serbia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Greece: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +2.
Serbia: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Greece | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWWL | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 4 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.2 | 23.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Greece 52.2 versus Serbia 23.8, a gap of 28.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.27, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Greece's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Greece at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Greece's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Greece or Serbia?
Greece, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Greece, 25% the draw and 30% Serbia.
When and where is Greece vs Serbia being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Greece and Serbia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Greece and Serbia?
Greece have taken 8 points from their last five (DDWWL), Serbia 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Greece took a 0-0 draw at home to Germany and Serbia a 1-2 defeat away at Netherlands.
How many goals are expected in Greece vs Serbia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.27 — 0.67 for Greece and 1.60 for Serbia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.