Denmark vs Norway: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Denmark the pick at 54% for Denmark vs Norway. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Norway travel to Denmark on 17 November 2026. Denmark are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Denmark - Norway. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Denmark: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Norway: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Denmark | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLW | LLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 25% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Denmark 45.0 versus Norway 34.5, a gap of 10.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Denmark's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Denmark at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Denmark's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Denmark or Norway?
Denmark, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Denmark, 21% the draw and 25% Norway.
When and where is Denmark vs Norway being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Denmark and Norway met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Denmark and Norway?
Denmark have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWLW), Norway 3 from theirs (LLLWL). Most recently Denmark took a 1-0 win away at Wales and Norway a 1-2 defeat away at Portugal.
How many goals are expected in Denmark vs Norway?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.80 for Denmark and 1.80 for Norway. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.