Ukraine vs Georgia match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Ukraine the pick at 49% for Ukraine vs Georgia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Ukraine face Georgia on 17 November 2026. Ukraine are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This league b 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Ukraine - Georgia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ukraine: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Georgia: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored two and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Ukraine | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWL | DLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 2 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.6 | 31.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Ukraine 37.6 versus Georgia 31.2, a gap of 6.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Ukraine's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Ukraine at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ukraine or Georgia?
Ukraine, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Ukraine, 22% the draw and 30% Georgia.
When and where is Ukraine vs Georgia being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Ukraine and Georgia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ukraine and Georgia?
Ukraine have taken 4 points from their last five (LLDWL), Georgia 5 from theirs (DLDLW). Most recently Ukraine took a 1-2 defeat at home to Hungary and Georgia a 0-0 draw away at Northern Ireland.
How many goals are expected in Ukraine vs Georgia?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.00 for Ukraine and 2.00 for Georgia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.