Hungary vs Northern Ireland — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Hungary the pick at 63% for Hungary vs Northern Ireland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Hungary host Northern Ireland on 17 November 2026. Hungary are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This league b 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Hungary - Northern Ireland. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Hungary: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored six and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Northern Ireland: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded three, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Hungary | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | DWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 5 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.6 | 52.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 13% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Hungary 48.6 versus Northern Ireland 52.7, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.25, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Hungary's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Hungary at 63%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Hungary or Northern Ireland?
Hungary, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Hungary, 24% the draw and 13% Northern Ireland.
When and where is Hungary vs Northern Ireland being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Hungary and Northern Ireland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Hungary and Northern Ireland?
Hungary have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Northern Ireland 8 from theirs (DWDWL). Most recently Hungary took a 2-1 win away at Ukraine and Northern Ireland a 0-0 draw at home to Georgia.
How many goals are expected in Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.25 — 1.50 for Hungary and 0.75 for Northern Ireland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.