Poland vs Sweden match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Poland the pick at 43% for Poland vs Sweden. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Sweden travel to Poland on 17 November 2026. Poland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This league b 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Poland - Sweden. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Poland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +3.
Sweden: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Poland | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDD | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.1 | 59.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 33% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Poland 39.1 versus Sweden 59.3, a gap of 20.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Poland's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Poland at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Poland or Sweden?
Poland, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Poland, 25% the draw and 33% Sweden.
When and where is Poland vs Sweden being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Poland and Sweden?
Sweden 3-2 Poland on 31 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Poland and Sweden?
Poland have taken 5 points from their last five (LWLDD), Sweden 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently Poland took a 0-1 defeat away at Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden a 1-0 win away at Romania.
How many goals are expected in Poland vs Sweden?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for Poland and 1.80 for Sweden. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.