Montenegro vs Latvia — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Montenegro the pick at 48% for Montenegro vs Latvia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Montenegro host Latvia on 12 November 2026. Montenegro are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Montenegro - Latvia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Montenegro: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Latvia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Montenegro | Latvia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWD | LLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 2 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.1 | 27.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Montenegro 59.1 versus Latvia 27.3, a gap of 31.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Montenegro's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Montenegro at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Montenegro's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Montenegro or Latvia?
Montenegro, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Montenegro, 21% the draw and 31% Latvia.
When and where is Montenegro vs Latvia being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Montenegro and Latvia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Montenegro and Latvia?
Montenegro have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWWD), Latvia 1 from theirs (LLDLL). Most recently Montenegro took a 0-0 draw at home to Armenia and Latvia a 1-2 defeat away at Cyprus.
How many goals are expected in Montenegro vs Latvia?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Montenegro and 1.00 for Latvia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.