Luxembourg vs Estonia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Luxembourg the pick at 52% for Luxembourg vs Estonia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Luxembourg face Estonia on 13 November 2026. Luxembourg are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Luxembourg - Estonia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Luxembourg: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -5.
Estonia: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored three and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Luxembourg | Estonia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -5 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWW | DWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 3 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.8 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Luxembourg 33.8 versus Estonia 45.2, a gap of 11.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.02, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Luxembourg's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Luxembourg at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Estonia's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Luxembourg or Estonia?
Luxembourg, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Luxembourg, 27% the draw and 20% Estonia.
When and where is Luxembourg vs Estonia being played?
13 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Luxembourg and Estonia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Luxembourg and Estonia?
Luxembourg have taken 6 points from their last five (LLLWW), Estonia 9 from theirs (DWDDW). Most recently Luxembourg took a 0-2 defeat at home to Bulgaria and Estonia a 0-0 draw at home to Iceland.
How many goals are expected in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.02 — 1.67 for Luxembourg and 1.35 for Estonia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.