Latvia vs Armenia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Latvia the pick at 56% for Latvia vs Armenia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Armenia travel to Latvia on 15 November 2026. Latvia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This league c 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Latvia - Armenia. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Latvia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Armenia: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Latvia | Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | DLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 7 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.3 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Latvia 27.3 versus Armenia 38.1, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Latvia's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Latvia at 56%, a gap of 30 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Latvia or Armenia?
Latvia, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Latvia, 25% the draw and 19% Armenia.
When and where is Latvia vs Armenia being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Latvia and Armenia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Latvia and Armenia?
Latvia have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Armenia 5 from theirs (DLLWD). Most recently Latvia took a 1-2 defeat away at Cyprus and Armenia a 0-0 draw away at Montenegro.
How many goals are expected in Latvia vs Armenia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Latvia and 1.00 for Armenia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.