Iceland vs Luxembourg — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Luxembourg the pick at 45% for Iceland vs Luxembourg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Iceland face Luxembourg on 16 November 2026. Luxembourg are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This league c 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Iceland - Luxembourg. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Iceland: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +6.
Luxembourg: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Iceland | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDL | LLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.2 | 33.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 45% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Iceland 53.2 versus Luxembourg 33.8, a gap of 19.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.27, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Luxembourg's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Luxembourg at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Iceland's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Iceland or Luxembourg?
Luxembourg, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 30% Iceland, 25% the draw and 45% Luxembourg.
When and where is Iceland vs Luxembourg being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Iceland and Luxembourg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Iceland and Luxembourg?
Iceland have taken 8 points from their last five (DWWDL), Luxembourg 6 from theirs (LLLWW). Most recently Iceland took a 0-0 draw away at Estonia and Luxembourg a 0-2 defeat at home to Bulgaria.
How many goals are expected in Iceland vs Luxembourg?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.27 — 0.60 for Iceland and 1.67 for Luxembourg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.