Gibraltar vs Malta: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Gibraltar and Malta on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Malta travel to Gibraltar on 16 November 2026. Malta are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This league d 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Gibraltar - Malta. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gibraltar: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Malta: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eight and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Gibraltar | Malta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDDW | WDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 2 | 8 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 48.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Gibraltar 31.7 versus Malta 48.8, a gap of 17.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: Over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 42%.
- First goal: Leans Gibraltar's way at 43%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Malta is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gibraltar or Malta?
Malta, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 34% Gibraltar, 30% the draw and 37% Malta.
When and where is Gibraltar vs Malta being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Gibraltar and Malta met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Gibraltar and Malta?
Gibraltar have taken 9 points from their last five (WDDDW), Malta 13 from theirs (WDWWW). Most recently Gibraltar took a 2-0 win away at Liechtenstein and Malta a 1-0 win at home to Andorra.
How many goals are expected in Gibraltar vs Malta?
It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 42%, so its call is no.