Switzerland vs Scotland: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Switzerland the pick at 53% for Switzerland vs Scotland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Switzerland host Scotland on 16 November 2026. Switzerland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This league b 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Switzerland - Scotland. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Switzerland: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 12 conceded in nine matches, 2.0 and 1.33 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +10.
Scotland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 1.29 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Switzerland | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +10 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | LWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 4 | 3 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 1.33 | 1.29 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.67 | 1.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.5 | 37.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Switzerland 67.5 versus Scotland 37.8, a gap of 29.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Switzerland's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Switzerland at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Switzerland's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Switzerland or Scotland?
Switzerland, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Switzerland, 24% the draw and 23% Scotland.
When and where is Switzerland vs Scotland being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Switzerland and Scotland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Switzerland and Scotland?
Switzerland have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Scotland 4 from theirs (LWLDL). Most recently Switzerland took a 3-0 win at home to FYR Macedonia and Scotland a 1-2 defeat at home to Slovenia.
How many goals are expected in Switzerland vs Scotland?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Switzerland and 1.80 for Scotland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.