Burkina Faso vs Benin: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Burkina Faso vs Benin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Burkina Faso face Benin on 25 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This group stage 1 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Burkina Faso - Benin. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burkina Faso: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored eight and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Benin: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored four and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Burkina Faso | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWL | LDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Burkina Faso's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Benin's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burkina Faso or Benin?
Neither side. Our model splits it 31% Burkina Faso, 49% the draw and 20% Benin, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Burkina Faso vs Benin being played?
25 September 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Burkina Faso and Benin met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burkina Faso and Benin?
Burkina Faso have taken 5 points from their last five (DLDWL), Benin 7 from theirs (LDWW). Most recently Burkina Faso took a 2-2 draw away at Belarus and Benin a 1-5 defeat away at Togo.
How many goals are expected in Burkina Faso vs Benin?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Burkina Faso and 0.00 for Benin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 19%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.