Algeria vs Togo: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Algeria the pick at 56% for Algeria vs Togo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Algeria host Togo on 11 November 2026. Algeria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Algeria - Togo. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Algeria: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Togo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Algeria | Togo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLD | LWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 9 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.8 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 17% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Algeria 38.8 versus Togo 34.8, a gap of 4.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.55, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Algeria's way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Algeria at 56%, a gap of 29 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Algeria or Togo?
Algeria, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Algeria, 27% the draw and 17% Togo.
When and where is Algeria vs Togo being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Algeria and Togo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Algeria and Togo?
Algeria have taken 8 points from their last five (WDWLD), Togo 10 from theirs (LWWDW). Most recently Algeria took a 2-1 win at home to Niger and Togo a 0-2 defeat away at Zambia.
How many goals are expected in Algeria vs Togo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.55 — 1.20 for Algeria and 1.35 for Togo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.