Benin vs Central African Republic match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Benin the pick at 45% for Benin vs Central African Republic. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Benin face Central African Republic on 11 November 2026. Benin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Benin - Central African Republic. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Benin: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Central African Republic: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Benin | Central African Republic |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLD | LLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 24.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Benin 38.6 versus Central African Republic 24.2, a gap of 14.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.33, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Benin's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Benin at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Benin's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Benin or Central African Republic?
Benin, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Benin, 27% the draw and 29% Central African Republic.
When and where is Benin vs Central African Republic being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Benin and Central African Republic met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Benin and Central African Republic?
Benin have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDLD), Central African Republic 4 from theirs (LLLDW). Most recently Benin took a 0-3 defeat away at Argentina and Central African Republic a 0-1 defeat at home to Burkina Faso.
How many goals are expected in Benin vs Central African Republic?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.33 — 0.33 for Benin and 0.00 for Central African Republic. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.