Burkina Faso vs Mauritania match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Burkina Faso the pick at 54% for Burkina Faso vs Mauritania. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mauritania travel to Burkina Faso on 11 November 2026. Burkina Faso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Burkina Faso - Mauritania. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Burkina Faso: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded 13, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Mauritania: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored six and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Burkina Faso | Mauritania |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | LWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Burkina Faso 38.6 versus Mauritania 35.2, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 40%.
- First goal: Leans Burkina Faso's way at 51%.
The call
The model tilts to Burkina Faso at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burkina Faso or Mauritania?
Burkina Faso, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Burkina Faso, 26% the draw and 20% Mauritania.
When and where is Burkina Faso vs Mauritania being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Burkina Faso and Mauritania met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burkina Faso and Mauritania?
Burkina Faso have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), Mauritania 7 from theirs (LWWD). Most recently Burkina Faso took a 0-7 defeat away at Argentina and Mauritania a 1-2 defeat away at Benin.
How many goals are expected in Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.80 for Burkina Faso and 0.00 for Mauritania. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 40%, so its call is no.