Congo DR vs Sierra Leone match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Congo DR the pick at 49% for Congo DR vs Sierra Leone. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Sierra Leone travel to Congo DR on 11 November 2026. Congo DR are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Congo DR - Sierra Leone. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Congo DR: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Sierra Leone: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Congo DR | Sierra Leone |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWWL | LLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 24.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Congo DR 45.8 versus Sierra Leone 24.5, a gap of 21.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.55, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Congo DR's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Congo DR at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Congo DR's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Congo DR or Sierra Leone?
Congo DR, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Congo DR, 31% the draw and 20% Sierra Leone.
When and where is Congo DR vs Sierra Leone being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Congo DR and Sierra Leone met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Congo DR and Sierra Leone?
Congo DR have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWWL), Sierra Leone 4 from theirs (LLLWD). Most recently Congo DR took a 1-1 draw away at Uganda and Sierra Leone a 0-1 defeat away at Equatorial Guinea.
How many goals are expected in Congo DR vs Sierra Leone?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.55 — 1.20 for Congo DR and 1.35 for Sierra Leone. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.