Egypt vs Malawi: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Egypt the pick at 63% for Egypt vs Malawi. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Egypt host Malawi on 11 November 2026. Egypt are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Egypt - Malawi. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Egypt: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Malawi: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Egypt | Malawi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLD | LWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.6 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Egypt 39.6 versus Malawi 34.8, a gap of 4.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.75, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Egypt's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Egypt at 63%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. Egypt's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Egypt or Malawi?
Egypt, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Egypt, 24% the draw and 14% Malawi.
When and where is Egypt vs Malawi being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Egypt and Malawi met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Egypt and Malawi?
Egypt have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDLD), Malawi 4 from theirs (LWDLL). Most recently Egypt took a 0-1 defeat at home to South Africa and Malawi a 1-3 defeat away at Angola.
How many goals are expected in Egypt vs Malawi?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.75 — 1.40 for Egypt and 1.35 for Malawi. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.