Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Equatorial Guinea the pick at 47% for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Zimbabwe travel to Equatorial Guinea on 11 November 2026. Equatorial Guinea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Equatorial Guinea - Zimbabwe. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Equatorial Guinea: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Across those four they scored two and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Zimbabwe: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Across those four they scored five and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Equatorial Guinea | Zimbabwe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLD | LWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 4 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 35.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 26% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.67, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Equatorial Guinea's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Equatorial Guinea at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Zimbabwe's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Equatorial Guinea or Zimbabwe?
Equatorial Guinea, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Equatorial Guinea, 27% the draw and 26% Zimbabwe.
When and where is Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe?
Equatorial Guinea have taken 4 points from their last four (WLLD), Zimbabwe 6 from theirs (LWWL). Most recently Equatorial Guinea took a 1-0 win at home to Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe a 1-2 defeat at home to Congo DR.
How many goals are expected in Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.67 — 0.67 for Equatorial Guinea and 1.00 for Zimbabwe. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.