Gabon vs Lesotho match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Gabon the pick at 46% for Gabon vs Lesotho. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Gabon host Lesotho on 11 November 2026. Gabon are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Gabon - Lesotho. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Gabon: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Lesotho: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gabon | Lesotho |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLL | LLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 24.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Gabon 35.0 versus Lesotho 24.2, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.68, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Gabon's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Gabon at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gabon or Lesotho?
Gabon, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Gabon, 25% the draw and 29% Lesotho.
When and where is Gabon vs Lesotho being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Gabon and Lesotho met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Gabon and Lesotho?
Gabon have taken 4 points from their last five (WLDLL), Lesotho 4 from theirs (LLLDW). Most recently Gabon took a 2-0 win at home to Niger and Lesotho a 0-2 defeat at home to Morocco.
How many goals are expected in Gabon vs Lesotho?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.68 — 1.33 for Gabon and 1.35 for Lesotho. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.