Ghana vs Somalia — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Ghana and Somalia on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Ghana face Somalia on 11 November 2026. Somalia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Ghana - Somalia. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ghana: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Somalia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three draws before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored one and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ghana | Somalia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLL | LLDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 9 | 1 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.0 | 24.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 39% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.60, over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Somalia's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. Somalia is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ghana or Somalia?
Somalia, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 23% Ghana, 38% the draw and 39% Somalia.
When and where is Ghana vs Somalia being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Ghana and Somalia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ghana and Somalia?
Ghana have taken 0 points from their last four (LLLL), Somalia 3 from theirs (LLDDD). Most recently Ghana took a 2-4 defeat at home to Gambia and Somalia a 0-2 defeat at home to Ivory Coast.
How many goals are expected in Ghana vs Somalia?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.60 — 0.60 for Ghana and 0.00 for Somalia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.