Guinea vs Eritrea — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Guinea the pick at 55% for Guinea vs Eritrea. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Guinea face Eritrea on 11 November 2026. Guinea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Guinea - Eritrea. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Guinea: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Eritrea: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored five and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Guinea | Eritrea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | LDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 27.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Guinea 35.0 versus Eritrea 27.1, a gap of 7.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.35, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Guinea's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Guinea at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Eritrea's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Guinea or Eritrea?
Guinea, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Guinea, 22% the draw and 24% Eritrea.
When and where is Guinea vs Eritrea being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Guinea and Eritrea met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Guinea and Eritrea?
Guinea have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Eritrea 7 from theirs (LDWW). Most recently Guinea took a 1-0 win at home to Kenya and Eritrea a 0-5 defeat at home to South Africa.
How many goals are expected in Guinea vs Eritrea?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.35 — 0.00 for Guinea and 1.35 for Eritrea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.