Ivory Coast vs Gambia match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Ivory Coast the pick at 57% for Ivory Coast vs Gambia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Gambia travel to Ivory Coast on 11 November 2026. Ivory Coast are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Ivory Coast - Gambia. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ivory Coast: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Gambia: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Across those four they scored eight and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Ivory Coast | Gambia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | WWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.0 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 15% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.75, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Ivory Coast's way at 61%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Ivory Coast at 57%, a gap of 30 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ivory Coast or Gambia?
Ivory Coast, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Ivory Coast, 27% the draw and 15% Gambia.
When and where is Ivory Coast vs Gambia being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Ivory Coast and Gambia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ivory Coast and Gambia?
Ivory Coast have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), Gambia 6 from theirs (WWLL). Most recently Ivory Coast took a 0-1 defeat at home to Cameroon and Gambia a 4-2 win away at Ghana.
How many goals are expected in Ivory Coast vs Gambia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.75 — 1.40 for Ivory Coast and 1.35 for Gambia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.