Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Madagascar the pick at 45% for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Madagascar host Guinea-Bissau on 11 November 2026. Madagascar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Madagascar - Guinea-Bissau. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Madagascar: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Guinea-Bissau: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored six and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Madagascar | Guinea-Bissau |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLD | WWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 46.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Madagascar 28.1 versus Guinea-Bissau 46.2, a gap of 18.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Madagascar's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Madagascar at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Guinea-Bissau's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Madagascar or Guinea-Bissau?
Madagascar, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Madagascar, 26% the draw and 29% Guinea-Bissau.
When and where is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau?
Madagascar have taken 2 points from their last four (DLLD), Guinea-Bissau 7 from theirs (WWDLL). Most recently Madagascar took a 1-1 draw at home to Tanzania and Guinea-Bissau a 3-0 win at home to Nigeria.
How many goals are expected in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Madagascar and 1.35 for Guinea-Bissau. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.