Mali vs Rwanda: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Mali and Rwanda on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Rwanda travel to Mali on 11 November 2026. Mali are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Mali - Rwanda. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mali: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored five and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Rwanda: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins before that. That is two wins, one draw and no defeats from the last three, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those three they scored five and conceded two, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mali | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWL | DWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 5 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 28% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Mali's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Mali is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mali or Rwanda?
Mali, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Mali, 34% the draw and 28% Rwanda.
When and where is Mali vs Rwanda being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Mali and Rwanda met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mali and Rwanda?
Mali have taken 7 points from their last four (DWWL), Rwanda 7 from theirs (DWW). Most recently Mali took a 1-1 draw away at Morocco and Rwanda a 0-0 draw at home to Kenya.
How many goals are expected in Mali vs Rwanda?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 0.60 for Mali and 1.35 for Rwanda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.