Morocco vs Niger — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Morocco the pick at 67% for Morocco vs Niger. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Niger travel to Morocco on 11 November 2026. Morocco are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Morocco - Niger. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Morocco: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored five and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Niger: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and three defeats from the last four, worth 3 points. Across those four they scored three and conceded six, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Morocco | Niger |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWL | LLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 3 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.0 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Morocco 46.0 versus Niger 34.8, a gap of 11.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.15, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Morocco's way at 70%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Morocco at 67%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. Morocco's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Morocco or Niger?
Morocco, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Morocco, 21% the draw and 11% Niger.
When and where is Morocco vs Niger being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Morocco and Niger met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Morocco and Niger?
Morocco have taken 7 points from their last four (DWWL), Niger 3 from theirs (LLWL). Most recently Morocco took a 1-1 draw at home to Mali and Niger a 1-2 defeat away at Algeria.
How many goals are expected in Morocco vs Niger?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.15 — 1.80 for Morocco and 1.35 for Niger. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.