Mozambique vs Ethiopia match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Ethiopia the pick at 46% for Mozambique vs Ethiopia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mozambique host Ethiopia on 11 November 2026. Ethiopia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Mozambique - Ethiopia. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Mozambique: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Ethiopia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored two and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Mozambique | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLL | LLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 2 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.1 | 24.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 46% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Mozambique 39.1 versus Ethiopia 24.5, a gap of 14.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Ethiopia's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Ethiopia at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mozambique or Ethiopia?
Ethiopia, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 28% Mozambique, 26% the draw and 46% Ethiopia.
When and where is Mozambique vs Ethiopia being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Mozambique and Ethiopia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mozambique and Ethiopia?
Mozambique have taken 4 points from their last five (WDLLL), Ethiopia 4 from theirs (LLDW). Most recently Mozambique took a 4-1 win at home to Sudan and Ethiopia a 0-1 defeat at home to Senegal.
How many goals are expected in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.00 for Mozambique and 2.00 for Ethiopia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.