Nigeria vs Tanzania — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Nigeria the pick at 61% for Nigeria vs Tanzania. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Nigeria host Tanzania on 11 November 2026. Nigeria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Nigeria - Tanzania. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nigeria: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of -2.
Tanzania: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and one defeat from the last three, worth 4 points. Across those three they scored seven and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Nigeria | Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLD | DLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 11 | 7 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.5 | 27.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 13% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Nigeria 34.5 versus Tanzania 27.8, a gap of 6.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Nigeria's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Nigeria at 61%, a gap of 35 percentage points to the next outcome. Nigeria's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nigeria or Tanzania?
Nigeria, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% Nigeria, 26% the draw and 13% Tanzania.
When and where is Nigeria vs Tanzania being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nigeria and Tanzania?
Nigeria 2-1 Tanzania on 23 December 2025.
What is the recent form of Nigeria and Tanzania?
Nigeria have taken 5 points from their last five (DLWLD), Tanzania 4 from theirs (DLW). Most recently Nigeria took a 3-3 draw away at Russia and Tanzania a 1-1 draw away at Madagascar.
How many goals are expected in Nigeria vs Tanzania?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.80 for Nigeria and 1.00 for Tanzania. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.