Senegal vs Sudan match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Senegal the pick at 68% for Senegal vs Sudan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Senegal host Sudan on 11 November 2026. Senegal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Senegal - Sudan. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Senegal: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Sudan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and two defeats from the last three, worth 3 points. Across those three they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Senegal | Sudan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | LWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 4 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 68% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Senegal 38.6 versus Sudan 34.5, a gap of 4.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.90, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Senegal's way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Senegal at 68%, a gap of 47 percentage points to the next outcome. Senegal's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Senegal or Sudan?
Senegal, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 68% Senegal, 21% the draw and 11% Sudan.
When and where is Senegal vs Sudan being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Senegal and Sudan?
Senegal 3-1 Sudan on 03 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Senegal and Sudan?
Senegal have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Sudan 3 from theirs (LWL). Most recently Senegal took a 1-0 win away at Comoros and Sudan a 1-4 defeat away at Mozambique.
How many goals are expected in Senegal vs Sudan?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.90 — 2.40 for Senegal and 0.50 for Sudan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.