South Africa vs Kenya: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes South Africa the pick at 48% for South Africa vs Kenya. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
South Africa face Kenya on 11 November 2026. South Africa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as South Africa - Kenya. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
South Africa: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +6.
Kenya: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored five and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | South Africa | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | DLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 5 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.5 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 22% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: South Africa 46.5 versus Kenya 28.1, a gap of 18.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.75, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans South Africa's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to South Africa at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. South Africa's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: South Africa or Kenya?
South Africa, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% South Africa, 30% the draw and 22% Kenya.
When and where is South Africa vs Kenya being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have South Africa and Kenya met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of South Africa and Kenya?
South Africa have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Kenya 5 from theirs (DLDW). Most recently South Africa took a 1-0 win away at Egypt and Kenya a 0-0 draw away at Rwanda.
How many goals are expected in South Africa vs Kenya?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.75 — 0.40 for South Africa and 1.35 for Kenya. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.