Tunisia vs Libya: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Tunisia the pick at 44% for Tunisia vs Libya. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Libya travel to Tunisia on 11 November 2026. Tunisia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Tunisia - Libya. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tunisia: they come in on two successive draws, following two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Libya: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four draws before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tunisia | Libya |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLL | LDDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 10 | 4 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Tunisia 31.7 versus Libya 28.1, a gap of 3.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Tunisia's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Tunisia at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tunisia or Libya?
Tunisia, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Tunisia, 29% the draw and 27% Libya.
When and where is Tunisia vs Libya being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Tunisia and Libya met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tunisia and Libya?
Tunisia have taken 2 points from their last four (DDLL), Libya 4 from theirs (LDDDD). Most recently Tunisia took a 2-2 draw at home to Botswana and Libya a 0-1 defeat away at Uganda.
How many goals are expected in Tunisia vs Libya?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 0.60 for Tunisia and 1.35 for Libya. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.