Uganda vs Botswana match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Uganda the pick at 53% for Uganda vs Botswana. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Uganda face Botswana on 11 November 2026. Uganda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Uganda - Botswana. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Uganda: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, two draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored five and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Botswana: they come in on two successive draws, following one win before that. That is one win, two draws and no defeats from the last three, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those three they scored five and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Uganda | Botswana |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWD | DDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 5 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 31.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Uganda 38.6 versus Botswana 31.7, a gap of 6.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Uganda's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Uganda at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Uganda or Botswana?
Uganda, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Uganda, 28% the draw and 19% Botswana.
When and where is Uganda vs Botswana being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Uganda and Botswana met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Uganda and Botswana?
Uganda have taken 8 points from their last four (DWWD), Botswana 5 from theirs (DDW). Most recently Uganda took a 1-1 draw at home to Congo DR and Botswana a 2-2 draw away at Tunisia.
How many goals are expected in Uganda vs Botswana?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Uganda and 0.00 for Botswana. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.