Zambia vs Burundi match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Burundi the pick at 40% for Zambia vs Burundi. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Zambia host Burundi on 11 November 2026. Burundi are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This group stage 3 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Zambia - Burundi. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Zambia: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored three and conceded eleven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Burundi: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored six and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Zambia | Burundi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | DLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 11 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 28.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Zambia 35.0 versus Burundi 28.1, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.25, over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Burundi's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Burundi at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Zambia or Burundi?
Burundi, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 27% Zambia, 32% the draw and 40% Burundi.
When and where is Zambia vs Burundi being played?
11 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Zambia and Burundi met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Zambia and Burundi?
Zambia have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Burundi 4 from theirs (DLLW). Most recently Zambia took a 2-0 win at home to Togo and Burundi a 2-2 draw at home to Algeria.
How many goals are expected in Zambia vs Burundi?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.25 — 0.25 for Zambia and 4.00 for Burundi. It rates over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.