Botswana vs Uganda: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Uganda the pick at 41% for Botswana vs Uganda. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Botswana face Uganda on 17 November 2026. Uganda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Botswana - Uganda. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Botswana: they come in on two successive draws, following one win before that. That is one win, two draws and no defeats from the last three, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those three they scored five and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Uganda: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, two draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored five and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Botswana | Uganda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDW | DWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 5 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 38.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 41% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Botswana 31.7 versus Uganda 38.6, a gap of 6.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Uganda's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Uganda at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Botswana or Uganda?
Uganda, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 31% Botswana, 28% the draw and 41% Uganda.
When and where is Botswana vs Uganda being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Botswana and Uganda met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Botswana and Uganda?
Botswana have taken 5 points from their last three (DDW), Uganda 8 from theirs (DWWD). Most recently Botswana took a 2-2 draw away at Tunisia and Uganda a 1-1 draw at home to Congo DR.
How many goals are expected in Botswana vs Uganda?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.00 for Botswana and 1.00 for Uganda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.