Burundi vs Zambia: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Burundi the pick at 38% for Burundi vs Zambia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burundi host Zambia on 17 November 2026. Burundi are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Burundi - Zambia. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burundi: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored six and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Zambia: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored three and conceded eleven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Burundi | Zambia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLW | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 3 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 35.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Burundi 28.1 versus Zambia 35.0, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.25, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Burundi's way at 42%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Burundi at 38%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burundi or Zambia?
Burundi, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Burundi, 33% the draw and 30% Zambia.
When and where is Burundi vs Zambia being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Burundi and Zambia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burundi and Zambia?
Burundi have taken 4 points from their last four (DLLW), Zambia 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently Burundi took a 2-2 draw at home to Algeria and Zambia a 2-0 win at home to Togo.
How many goals are expected in Burundi vs Zambia?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.25 — 4.00 for Burundi and 0.25 for Zambia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.