Eritrea vs Guinea: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Eritrea and Guinea on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Eritrea host Guinea on 16 November 2026 at Al Salam Stadium, Cairo. Guinea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Eritrea - Guinea. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Eritrea: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored five and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -5.
Guinea: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Eritrea | Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -5 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWW | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.1 | 35.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 38% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Eritrea 27.1 versus Guinea 35.0, a gap of 7.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.35, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Guinea's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Guinea is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. Eritrea's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Eritrea or Guinea?
Guinea, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 36% Eritrea, 26% the draw and 38% Guinea.
When and where is Eritrea vs Guinea being played?
16 November 2026 at Al Salam Stadium, Cairo, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Eritrea and Guinea met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Eritrea and Guinea?
Eritrea have taken 7 points from their last four (LDWW), Guinea 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently Eritrea took a 0-5 defeat at home to South Africa and Guinea a 1-0 win at home to Kenya.
How many goals are expected in Eritrea vs Guinea?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.35 — 1.35 for Eritrea and 0.00 for Guinea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.