Ethiopia vs Mozambique: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Ethiopia the pick at 53% for Ethiopia vs Mozambique. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mozambique travel to Ethiopia on 17 November 2026. Ethiopia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Ethiopia - Mozambique. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ethiopia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored two and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Mozambique: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Ethiopia | Mozambique |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDW | WDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 3 | 6 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.5 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Ethiopia 24.5 versus Mozambique 39.1, a gap of 14.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Ethiopia's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Ethiopia at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ethiopia or Mozambique?
Ethiopia, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Ethiopia, 27% the draw and 20% Mozambique.
When and where is Ethiopia vs Mozambique being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Ethiopia and Mozambique met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ethiopia and Mozambique?
Ethiopia have taken 4 points from their last four (LLDW), Mozambique 4 from theirs (WDLLL). Most recently Ethiopia took a 0-1 defeat at home to Senegal and Mozambique a 4-1 win at home to Sudan.
How many goals are expected in Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Ethiopia and 1.00 for Mozambique. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.