Gambia vs Ivory Coast: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Ivory Coast the pick at 55% for Gambia vs Ivory Coast. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Gambia host Ivory Coast on 17 November 2026 at Independence Stadium, Bakau. Ivory Coast are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Gambia - Ivory Coast. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gambia: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Across those four they scored eight and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +2.
Ivory Coast: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gambia | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +2 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWL | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.5 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 55% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Gambia 45.5 versus Ivory Coast 56.2, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Ivory Coast's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Ivory Coast at 55%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gambia or Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 23% Gambia, 22% the draw and 55% Ivory Coast.
When and where is Gambia vs Ivory Coast being played?
17 November 2026 at Independence Stadium, Bakau, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gambia and Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast 2-1 Gambia on 12 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Gambia and Ivory Coast?
Gambia have taken 6 points from their last four (LWWL), Ivory Coast 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Gambia took a 1-2 defeat away at Ivory Coast and Ivory Coast a 2-1 win at home to Gambia.
How many goals are expected in Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Gambia and 1.40 for Ivory Coast. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.