Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Guinea-Bissau the pick at 61% for Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Madagascar travel to Guinea-Bissau on 17 November 2026. Guinea-Bissau are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Guinea-Bissau - Madagascar. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Guinea-Bissau: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Madagascar: they come in on two successive draws, following two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.4 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Guinea-Bissau | Madagascar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDL | DDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 3 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.6 | 31.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Guinea-Bissau 49.6 versus Madagascar 31.4, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Guinea-Bissau's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Guinea-Bissau at 61%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. Guinea-Bissau's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Guinea-Bissau or Madagascar?
Guinea-Bissau, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% Guinea-Bissau, 21% the draw and 18% Madagascar.
When and where is Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar?
Madagascar 1-1 Guinea-Bissau on 12 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar?
Guinea-Bissau have taken 8 points from their last five (DWWDL), Madagascar 2 from theirs (DDLL). Most recently Guinea-Bissau took a 1-1 draw away at Madagascar and Madagascar a 1-1 draw at home to Guinea-Bissau.
How many goals are expected in Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Guinea-Bissau and 1.00 for Madagascar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.