Kenya vs South Africa: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes South Africa the pick at 39% for Kenya vs South Africa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Kenya face South Africa on 17 November 2026 at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi. South Africa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Kenya - South Africa. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Kenya: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored five and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
South Africa: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Kenya | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDW | WWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 9 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 46.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Kenya 28.1 versus South Africa 46.5, a gap of 18.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.75, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Kenya's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards South Africa at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. South Africa's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kenya or South Africa?
South Africa, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 34% Kenya, 27% the draw and 39% South Africa.
When and where is Kenya vs South Africa being played?
17 November 2026 at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Kenya and South Africa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Kenya and South Africa?
Kenya have taken 5 points from their last four (DLDW), South Africa 12 from theirs (WWWLW). Most recently Kenya took a 0-0 draw away at Rwanda and South Africa a 1-0 win away at Egypt.
How many goals are expected in Kenya vs South Africa?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.75 — 1.35 for Kenya and 0.40 for South Africa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.