Lesotho vs Gabon: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lesotho the pick at 44% for Lesotho vs Gabon. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lesotho face Gabon on 17 November 2026 at Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane. Lesotho are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Lesotho - Gabon. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lesotho: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -3.
Gabon: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lesotho | Gabon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLDW | WLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 10 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.2 | 35.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 32% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Lesotho 24.2 versus Gabon 35.0, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.68, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Lesotho's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Lesotho at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lesotho's way, especially at Peter Mokaba Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lesotho or Gabon?
Lesotho, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Lesotho, 24% the draw and 32% Gabon.
When and where is Lesotho vs Gabon being played?
17 November 2026 at Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Lesotho and Gabon met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lesotho and Gabon?
Lesotho have taken 4 points from their last five (LLLDW), Gabon 4 from theirs (WLDLL). Most recently Lesotho took a 0-2 defeat at home to Morocco and Gabon a 2-0 win at home to Niger.
How many goals are expected in Lesotho vs Gabon?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.68 — 1.35 for Lesotho and 1.33 for Gabon. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.