Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Liberia the pick at 43% for Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Cape Verde Islands travel to Liberia on 17 November 2026. Liberia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Liberia - Cape Verde Islands. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Liberia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and two defeats from the last three, worth 3 points. Across those three they scored four and conceded five, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -3.
Cape Verde Islands: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two draws before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored six and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Liberia | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLW | LLLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.2 | 24.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 31% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.35, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Liberia's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Liberia at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Liberia or Cape Verde Islands?
Liberia, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Liberia, 26% the draw and 31% Cape Verde Islands.
When and where is Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Liberia and Cape Verde Islands met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Liberia and Cape Verde Islands?
Liberia have taken 3 points from their last three (LLW), Cape Verde Islands 2 from theirs (LLLDD). Most recently Liberia took a 0-1 defeat at home to Mali and Cape Verde Islands a 1-2 defeat at home to Rwanda.
How many goals are expected in Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.35 — 1.35 for Liberia and 1.00 for Cape Verde Islands. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.