Libya vs Tunisia match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Libya the pick at 45% for Libya vs Tunisia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Libya face Tunisia on 17 November 2026. Libya are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Libya - Tunisia. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Libya: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four draws before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -1.
Tunisia: they come in on two successive draws, following two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Libya | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDDD | DDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.1 | 31.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Libya 28.1 versus Tunisia 31.7, a gap of 3.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Libya's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Libya at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Libya or Tunisia?
Libya, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Libya, 25% the draw and 31% Tunisia.
When and where is Libya vs Tunisia being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Libya and Tunisia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Libya and Tunisia?
Libya have taken 4 points from their last five (LDDDD), Tunisia 2 from theirs (DDLL). Most recently Libya took a 0-1 defeat away at Uganda and Tunisia a 2-2 draw at home to Botswana.
How many goals are expected in Libya vs Tunisia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 1.35 for Libya and 0.60 for Tunisia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.