Malawi vs Egypt — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Egypt the pick at 50% for Malawi vs Egypt. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Malawi host Egypt on 17 November 2026 at Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe. Egypt are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Malawi - Egypt. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Malawi: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Egypt: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Malawi | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLL | LWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 39.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 50% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Malawi 34.8 versus Egypt 39.6, a gap of 4.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.75, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Egypt's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Egypt at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Egypt's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Malawi or Egypt?
Egypt, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 27% Malawi, 23% the draw and 50% Egypt.
When and where is Malawi vs Egypt being played?
17 November 2026 at Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Malawi and Egypt met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Malawi and Egypt?
Malawi have taken 4 points from their last five (LWDLL), Egypt 5 from theirs (LWDLD). Most recently Malawi took a 1-3 defeat away at Angola and Egypt a 0-1 defeat at home to South Africa.
How many goals are expected in Malawi vs Egypt?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.75 — 1.35 for Malawi and 1.40 for Egypt. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.