Mauritania vs Burkina Faso: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Burkina Faso the pick at 42% for Mauritania vs Burkina Faso. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burkina Faso travel to Mauritania on 17 November 2026 at Stade Cheikha Ould Boidiya, Nouakchott. Burkina Faso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Mauritania - Burkina Faso. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Mauritania: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Across those four they scored six and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Burkina Faso: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded 13, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Mauritania | Burkina Faso |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWD | LWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 4 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 38.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 42% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Mauritania 35.2 versus Burkina Faso 38.6, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Burkina Faso's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Burkina Faso at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mauritania or Burkina Faso?
Burkina Faso, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 27% Mauritania, 32% the draw and 42% Burkina Faso.
When and where is Mauritania vs Burkina Faso being played?
17 November 2026 at Stade Cheikha Ould Boidiya, Nouakchott, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Mauritania and Burkina Faso met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mauritania and Burkina Faso?
Mauritania have taken 7 points from their last four (LWWD), Burkina Faso 5 from theirs (LWDDL). Most recently Mauritania took a 1-2 defeat away at Benin and Burkina Faso a 0-7 defeat away at Argentina.
How many goals are expected in Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.00 for Mauritania and 0.80 for Burkina Faso. It rates over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.