Niger vs Morocco: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Morocco the pick at 55% for Niger vs Morocco. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Niger host Morocco on 17 November 2026 at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat. Morocco are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Niger - Morocco. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Niger: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and three defeats from the last four, worth 3 points. Across those four they scored three and conceded six, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Morocco: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored five and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Niger | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWL | DWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 6 | 5 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 55% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Niger 34.8 versus Morocco 46.0, a gap of 11.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.15, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Morocco's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Morocco at 55%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Morocco's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Niger or Morocco?
Morocco, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 23% Niger, 22% the draw and 55% Morocco.
When and where is Niger vs Morocco being played?
17 November 2026 at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Niger and Morocco met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Niger and Morocco?
Niger have taken 3 points from their last four (LLWL), Morocco 7 from theirs (DWWL). Most recently Niger took a 1-2 defeat away at Algeria and Morocco a 1-1 draw at home to Mali.
How many goals are expected in Niger vs Morocco?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.15 — 1.35 for Niger and 1.80 for Morocco. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.