Rwanda vs Mali match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Rwanda the pick at 43% for Rwanda vs Mali. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mali travel to Rwanda on 17 November 2026 at Stade Amahoro, Kigali. Rwanda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Rwanda - Mali. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rwanda: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins before that. That is two wins, one draw and no defeats from the last three, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those three they scored five and conceded two, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Mali: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those four they scored five and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Rwanda | Mali |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWW | DWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 5 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 30% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Rwanda's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Rwanda at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rwanda's way, especially at Stade Amahoro.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rwanda or Mali?
Rwanda, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Rwanda, 27% the draw and 30% Mali.
When and where is Rwanda vs Mali being played?
17 November 2026 at Stade Amahoro, Kigali, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Rwanda and Mali met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rwanda and Mali?
Rwanda have taken 7 points from their last three (DWW), Mali 7 from theirs (DWWL). Most recently Rwanda took a 0-0 draw at home to Kenya and Mali a 1-1 draw away at Morocco.
How many goals are expected in Rwanda vs Mali?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 1.35 for Rwanda and 0.60 for Mali. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.