Sierra Leone vs Congo DR: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Congo DR the pick at 44% for Sierra Leone vs Congo DR. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Congo DR travel to Sierra Leone on 17 November 2026. Congo DR are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Sierra Leone - Congo DR. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sierra Leone: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Congo DR: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sierra Leone | Congo DR |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -4 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | WDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.0 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 44% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Sierra Leone 24.0 versus Congo DR 56.2, a gap of 32.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Congo DR's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Congo DR at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Congo DR's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sierra Leone or Congo DR?
Congo DR, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 31% Sierra Leone, 25% the draw and 44% Congo DR.
When and where is Sierra Leone vs Congo DR being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sierra Leone and Congo DR?
Congo DR 3-1 Sierra Leone on 12 November 2026.
What is the recent form of Sierra Leone and Congo DR?
Sierra Leone have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Congo DR 10 from theirs (WDLWW). Most recently Sierra Leone took a 1-3 defeat away at Congo DR and Congo DR a 3-1 win at home to Sierra Leone.
How many goals are expected in Sierra Leone vs Congo DR?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Sierra Leone and 1.60 for Congo DR. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.