Somalia vs Ghana: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 41% for Somalia vs Ghana. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Somalia host Ghana on 16 November 2026 at Accra Sports Stadium, Accra. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 41%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Somalia - Ghana. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Somalia: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three draws before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored one and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Ghana: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Somalia | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDD | LLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 4 | 3 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 24.2 | 24.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 26% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.60, over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Somalia's way at 43%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Somalia or Ghana?
Neither side. Our model splits it 34% Somalia, 41% the draw and 26% Ghana, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Somalia vs Ghana being played?
16 November 2026 at Accra Sports Stadium, Accra, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Somalia and Ghana met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Somalia and Ghana?
Somalia have taken 3 points from their last five (LLDDD), Ghana 0 from theirs (LLLL). Most recently Somalia took a 0-2 defeat at home to Ivory Coast and Ghana a 2-4 defeat at home to Gambia.
How many goals are expected in Somalia vs Ghana?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.60 — 0.00 for Somalia and 0.60 for Ghana. It rates over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.