Sudan vs Senegal: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Senegal the pick at 52% for Sudan vs Senegal. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Senegal travel to Sudan on 16 November 2026. Senegal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Sudan - Senegal. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sudan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and two defeats from the last three, worth 3 points. Across those three they scored three and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Senegal: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sudan | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWL | WWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.5 | 38.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 19% | 52% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Sudan 34.5 versus Senegal 38.6, a gap of 4.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.90, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Senegal's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Senegal at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Senegal's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sudan or Senegal?
Senegal, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 19% Sudan, 29% the draw and 52% Senegal.
When and where is Sudan vs Senegal being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sudan and Senegal?
Senegal 3-1 Sudan on 03 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Sudan and Senegal?
Sudan have taken 3 points from their last three (LWL), Senegal 10 from theirs (WWDLW). Most recently Sudan took a 1-4 defeat away at Mozambique and Senegal a 1-0 win away at Comoros.
How many goals are expected in Sudan vs Senegal?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.90 — 0.50 for Sudan and 2.40 for Senegal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.